Prakash Patra
First Published : 10 Dec 2008 02:20:00 AM IST
Last Updated : 10 Dec 2008 09:56:58 AM IST
The outcome of the assembly elections in four states is bad news for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has been aggressively projecting itself as the alternative to the Congress at the Centre. The party has reasons to be worried about its prospects in the general elections, which are to be held in a few months from now.
For the BJP, the Mumbai attacks happened at a politically opportune time. They came on the heels of the arrest of alleged Hindu terrorists for their suspected involvement in the Malegaon blasts. The party missed no opportunity to make this the focal point of its campaigns in Delhi and Rajasthan.
Overnight, it redrew its strategy in the two states. Courtesy the hype created by the BJP and also by the electronic media, the elections in Delhi and Rajasthan were perceived as a kind of referendum on the stand of the two principal parties on the terror issue While the Congress was rattled and went on the defensive, the BJP was at its aggressive best.
Consider the scenario before Mumbai.
When the Maharashtra police arrested Hindu activists including Pragya Thakur, a former activist of the BJP youth wing, and a serving military officer for the Malegaon blasts, the BJP went all over the country screaming about the political bias of the police. Initially, the party took exception to the police publicising the religious affiliations of the arrested persons and issued statements like: “Hindus cannot be terrorists”, “terrorism has no religion”, etc.
Then it changed tack as it realised that the arrests could be used to whip up passions on religious lines. The BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, L K Advani, who was initially silent, joined the chorus. He took the torture allegations of the Malegaon accused so seriously that he sought the intervention of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The purpose became abundantly clear when, during electioneering, Advani remarked that had Mohammad Afzal Guru, convicted in the Parliament attack case, been a Hindu, the UPA government would have shown no mercy and hanged him. BJP president Rajnath Singh and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi crisscrossed the poll-bound states to highlight “the unwillingness” of the Congress to tackle terror.
In the absence of a clear Hindutva agenda that could have a pan-Indian appeal, the BJP banked on the issue of security, which, in its calculations, could divide the nation on communal lines. For the past several months, the party had been harping on the UPA government’s soft approach towards terrorism and linking this to the so-called appeasement of the minority vote bank. The strategy was to keep the pressure on and build up the desired momentum by the time of the Lok Sabha elections.
The results in Delhi and Rajasthan, which went to the polls after Mumbai, clearly indicate that the electorate — whether urban Delhi or predominantly rural Rajasthan — has rebuffed the BJP’s crude attempts to politicise terrorism. Just as the party miscalculated on the “India Shining” campaign delivering the endorsement of an economically upbeat middle-class during the last Lok Sabha elections, it also made a mistake in thinking that the much-hyped “anger” of the same middle classes, as expressed in candlelight vigils, poster campaigns and such like in the aftermath of Mumbai, would translate into a huge win in Delhi and Rajasthan.
But just as the 2004 Lok Sabha elections were belatedly recognised as being about the aam admi (common man) who was totally disconnected from the BJP’s Shining India, this time too the elections turned to be about the aam admi who, it seems, the BJP is yet to figure out correctly.
The BJP was wrong in thinking that it could use international terrorism to buttress its core positions on domestic communalism.
The party erred in thinking that the shock, fear and anger over terrorist strikes in Mumbai could be funnelled into a communal channel that would win it the post- Mumbai elections. In retrospect, it would seem that the BJP should have paid greater attention to a single incident in Mumbai, which came to be a sign of how voters elsewhere would react.
When Mrs Karkare, the wife of slain ATS chief Hemant Karkare who before his death was being reviled by the BJP for his investigations into Malegaon, rebuffed the cash offering of Narendra Modi the day after her husband’s death she represented, in a way, the aam admi’s rejection of cynical opportunism.
In much the same way, the electorate in Rajasthan and Delhi too refused to buy the communal politicisation of the terrorist strikes in the country. As usual, the aam admi is much wiser and more balanced than anyone believes he is.
This is not to suggest that communalism has disappeared from our society. After all, the BJP’s sweep in Madhya Pradesh can be attributed to the communal passions that the party was able to whip up on the basis of the Malegaon arrests. We should recognise that communalism and communal politics will fester in our society and polity and there will be times when they seem to have the upper hand. But clearly, this is not that time.
As Muslim community leaders refused their burial grounds for the dead terrorists, and burqa clad women and bearded clerics also took to the streets shouting slogans to proclaim that terrorism has no religion, it can be said that the electorate is wise enough to realise that the Mumbai terror attacks are an attack of international terror on India as a nation and society, and to realise that in times like this, we are all victims, Hindus and Muslims alike.
The BJP is, of course, in overdrive, trying to put its own spin on the outcomes in Rajasthan and Delhi. It would prefer to draw attention to the fact that it has retained Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and gloss over its loss in Rajasthan and failure to capture Delhi, where it won an unprecedented mandate in civic elections recently, as something that was state-specific. The party would not like to accept the obvious fact that the electorate has categorically rejected its crude politicisation of the terror attacks.
The irony, of course, is that this aspect has equally taken the Congress by surprise. For, when it comes to reading the mind of the aam admi, the Delhi-based national leadership of both parties seem equally clueless.
This brings us to how the BJP is going to plan its strategy for the Lok Sabha elections, now just a few months away. The party, which has just become a victim of its own anti-terror hype, has to now look for a new plank. Given that the BJP has been sustaining itself only through divisive politics, the party will have to accept the limitations of this approach and reorient its electoral mantras if it wants to retain relevance at the national level. That is the message from Delhi and Rajasthan, which the BJP can only ignore at its own peril
prakashpatra@gmail.com
About the author:
Prakash Patra is a journalist and political commentator
Comments
The press appears to have come to the conclusion that because BJP lost Rajasthan and Delhi, the electorate is no longer willing to buy BJP's war on terror. However, it is widely reported that BJP's victory in Chattisgarh reflected the common man's opposition to Naxalism, which is red terrorism. Therefore, the electorate in Chattisgarh supported the BJP's fight against terrorism. The final word on Islamic terrorism has not been said - the general elections are coming up.
By K.Venugopal 12/10/2008 2:44:00 PM
BJP lost in Rajasthan because of extravagance of the Raje (remember the 28 mercs she bought), false promises made to Gurjars, then mishandling the law and order situation when they went to protest, freezing the recruitment in almost all Govt departments etc etc. BJP lost in delhi because of outstanding performance of Sheila Dixit Govt. and also this guy V.K. Malhotra looks like a lowly cunning politician. However, they were definitely wrong in trying to get mileage out of Bombay attacks. I was quite sad that both Advani and Rajnath Singh skipped the all party meeting convened by PM. I think the lesson for BJP is that they need to get rid of both Advani and Rajnath Singh. Neither has the persona needed for a national leader. I have high hopes from Arun Jetly and the gang. As for Congress's secularism I really have no doubt that they have dented this country's national security more than anybody else. Be it the spread of bangladeshis all over the country or the handling of J&K or the
By kapil 12/10/2008 2:17:00 PM
I do not support any other party and I am not here to praise or blame any one. My opinion is based on observation. I belong to MP and I live in Indore. I have seen this state grow gradually but surely. I was not at all surprised when BJP was voted back to power in MP. This state has seen ten years of Digvijay Sing era (1993–2003) where the state sunk to its lowest possible condition in every way. It lead to a BJP win in 2003 since when the state has seen incredible growth. The roads are getting better, the electricity situation is better, water management is improvising, comparatively more transparency and efficiency in governance can be seen, education sector is booming. Visit Indore, Bhopal, Gwalior, Dewas, Dhar you will notice buzz of development. Nobody wants to go back to the congress era unless they make a strong case.
By Anupam 12/10/2008 1:11:00 PM
BJP LOSE. I don't think so. they lose only less margin to RAJASTAN. It is against so in recent poll, they won both Chattisgad and mp. It is not for congress to celebreate. we people of the nation feel insecurity with congress government. Everyone blame BJP as anti muslim, why cant they critisise their unwelcoming strategy for muslims, simply they woe muslims. If they not stop this blody policy and make equalism to hindus and muslims,we don't want this blody reformers. Just treat us equal not woe special insentives to others includes sonia cast (christians). They must stop blody politics and woe others this problem goes on. No true christian want other people take baptisam if they feel they are doing service. Eg.MOTHER THERISSA. We want our rights protected and not molested for any other community and at the set us live together.
By ANAND BABU 12/10/2008 12:52:00 PM
Howe this journalist get a space for his bought out article by congressi I m from Mp the win of mp was pirely from development work more over if one count muslim votes they vote 99.99 percent to congress because of its divisive politics between Hindus next election will see single voting by Hindus in this state , the authour is paid huge amount for the article it looks like it it overshadow your news paper esteem aslo it is for you to think wether to allow this kind of journalist on your paper who can hamper your own reputation
By sudheer 12/10/2008 12:37:00 PM
Absolutely dead right. We Indian citizens are no fools. When BJP blames the ruling party for terror, we would like to ask them what have they done? Why were they not letting Mr. Karkare do his job as ATS chief? When they were in power, what did they do? They may have forgotten the Parliament Attack or Kandahar. We have not and we will not. When they were in power, they shrugged their shoulders and blamed their allies for not doing anything. When they are in opposition they oppose the government for everything; most of the time at the cost of national interest. I salute Mrs. Karkare for standing up against these shameless thugs. I know that very soon BJP will start a campain against her that she is anti Hindu , anti national blah blah....My message to Advani and co : Grow up or get lost......
By Ketan 12/10/2008 12:34:00 PM
I don't think BJP Lose election , they are done well in this election . They got two states Chhatishgarh and MP, They lose in Delhi , it is not the credit of Congress , It is the credit of all govt. employees , they vote to congress because of Pay Commission , In Delhi 30% Vote bank is Central Govt. Employees , second pint is that 20% Muslim votes are go to Congress . Even though Rajasthan hd done good over come Gujjar's issue and good amount of seats they got in state , Go ahead for LS election . definitely BJP will win , failure is the pillar of success, fingers cross BJP will win 2009 LS Election , good luck .......................................
By prasad 12/10/2008 12:32:00 PM
only BJP is safe to INDIA
By senthil 12/10/2008 12:30:00 PM
I think the author is a slave of Congress which he has repeatedly proved through the article. This article was written with the sole purpose of pleasing his bosses at Congress HQ. The author claims that BJP in MP because of communalisation of the people their is totally ridiculous, however if we are to go by his stupid assumption then whichever state that elects BJP has to communal, and only if the people vote for Congress will it become purified of its communal sins. People such as the author of this article have sold their bodies and soul to pseudo-secularists, and their masters. I wonder how much these stooges of media who work for Congress get paid, so that I can ascertain the average cost of soul of clowns like Prakash Patra. Jai Hind!
By Samina Khan 12/10/2008 12:28:00 PM
Mr Patra how much were you paid by the CONgress for writing this rubbish? How can you assess the mind of all the Indians just from the electoral results of two states? It is the media which goes in overdrive trying to please this Italian family and prove that our country cannot do without their presence. One billion Indians are solely dependent on Sonia Maino, Rahul Maino, and Priyanka Maino for their safety and prosperity! It is only one woman who makes us dance on her tunes. And we willingly dance. What a shame Mr Patra.
By Akki 12/10/2008 12:24:00 PM
Its a stupid comment. These commentators are so predictable. How much more lop-sided can a commentator be? He is simply biased, unwilling to see beyond his own belief, dishonest enough not to admit his own inclinations openly and worst, gets space in a newspaper which once boasted of editors like Shourie. Wake up IE. Ask these columnists to respond to atleast some msgs. Shoot and sccot wont do.
By Manujsk 12/10/2008 12:22:00 PM
I agree slightly with John Dayal - But I want to add the in Delhi government has also been engaged in development, which can be seen out (if you have a positive mind). Vasundhara Raje lost due to here own demerits and Sheila won contrary to that. Thats all conclusions. These elections has nothing or less to do with terrorism attack in Mumbai or Malegaon acts............
By Y Raj 12/10/2008 12:18:00 PM
I think this is stupid article based on some assumption well question is, if the people of Delhi are smart voters to choose Shiela, will they choose MMS (If Gandhi slaves inside the party allow him to)? Now if they could not win votes in Delhi and Rajesthan bases on terrorist agenda ...how they managed in MP and Chattisgarh? Strange! do you mean the people of these two states are not wise enough. So is people of other 8 states BJP leads Lets talk about How many times people have kicked aside media assumption? but these guys will be busy on blaming the politicians as if they are better ;-))
By Rakesh 12/10/2008 12:03:00 PM
There's hardly any doubt that the UPA Govt. functions under the guidence of UPA Chairperson Mrs. Sonia Gandhi. For 4.5 yrs. of UPA rule, public did not see any effective actions on... 1.Terrorism & Strengthing of Internal/External security 2.Inflation & price rise. Now with not more than 6 months left for the next general elections, Mrs. Gandhi pushed the Govt. to act so that in the campaign they can harp on the steps/actions Govt. took in lat 4-6 months & fool the public. The Govt. is asking Pak to handover 20 most wanted to India.Now even if(rarest chance) they handover those 20 to us then also is there any surity that they would be hanged to death? If we look at the Afzal Guru's case,the answer will be a big "No". Those who are crying on "Hindu terrorism" need to ask themselves "Who is more dangerous for India- LeT,Jaish-e-Mohd.,Deccan Mujjahiddin or Sadhvi Pragya?" I don't think BJP did anything wrong in making Govt's soft stance on terrorism an agenda. Often anti BJP
By Dhruv 12/10/2008 12:00:00 PM
After the public outburst seen post mumbai terror attacks, I thisnk this is no brainer that public has rejected the politicians as a whole holding Congress and BJP alike. Therefore it would only be fair to say that there was no clear advantage to Congress bcause of terror attacks. However from Congresses' perspective, it must be noted that how the PM Mr Manmohan Singh, who was once labled as a dummy PM by many political parties and a large section from public, has led the party from the front in getting the nuclear deal for our power hungary nation. Moreover Manmohan singh's image of an economist is more prominent in people's minds and this separated him from the general political class which has become the prime target of the public wrath and rejection.
By Nishant 12/10/2008 11:56:00 AM
I am somehow uncomfortable that I have left India. I always had great respect for the country's history and it's great leaders in the past, I am still proud to say that I am Indian, but most politicians, especially the parties who draw votes based on religion sicken me. They are the only reason India is still held back from giving it's people a true democracy, and the standard of living that is humane. I mean look and reflect on how far we have come inspite of having criminals in public office, imagine how far we could get if educated, decent people could step in and do the job. Look beyond your religion when you vote people into power, else how different are you from the extremists who wage wars using their religion as an excuse. Don't behave like an illiterate, especially if you're not.
By Dirk Lewis 12/10/2008 11:48:00 AM
ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS CREATED ALARM FOR BOTH CONGRESS AND BJP .AS FAR AS CONGRESS IS CONCERN THE CENTRAL GOVT SOFT ACT TOWARDS JIHADIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE AT ALL.SONIA IS PLAYING MINORITY CARD IN THIS.
By sumeet roykaran 12/10/2008 11:47:00 AM
aSSEMBLY ELECTIONS CREATED ALARM FOR BOTH CONGRESS AND BJP .AS FAR AS CONGRESS IS CONCERN THE CENTRAL GOVT SOFT ACT TOWARDS JIHADIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE AT ALL.SONIA IS PLAYING MINORITY CARD IN THIS.
By sumeet 12/10/2008 11:43:00 AM
Not only the parties are clueless, but even the author is also clueless about predicting the so-called aam-admi's mind. It is clear from his narrative - that *he* was also expecting the mumbai attack to have repurcursions in the state elections. Right, this author is too judgemental, and confused between terrorism and communalism, and tries to pass on his confusions to his readers. And yes, there are too many of them. You can really count the commentators, who are more factual and less judgemental.
By Moorthy RS 12/10/2008 11:38:00 AM
AS LONG AS ANTI HINDU BIGOTS LIKE PATRA THRIVE INDIA WILL REMAIN A FAIR GAME FOR JIHADIS.
By Hindustani 12/10/2008 11:31:00 AM
Except the BJP Comrades were knocking the doors of every other party for a tie up in the coming Lok Sabha elections. They do not have any plans or projections for a better India tomarrow. Their main aim is to some how win some MLA/MP seats and maintain their presence in politics by doing political brokerages where ever and when ever it is possible. They will openly support and use the hidden services of Madhani in Kerala for their political benefit but as part of their double standards do not feel shame to talk non-sence about the BJP. How can they support minority vote bank politics based on communal lines when they oppose the BJP. Happened is happened: Please have good hopes on BJP to do well in the coming L S Elections
By Vikram 12/10/2008 11:26:00 AM
The essence is nobody believes in what B.J.P says.They first alienated minorities.But they could not win the confidence of the majority.So they dont have the support of either.I dont know what their leadership is thinking.Do they think that what they have said and done will be forgotten easily.No Indian will forget the fact that they tried to make money out of shaheed soldiers's coffins.
By Prasoon 12/10/2008 11:24:00 AM
Not only the parties are clueless, but even the author is also clueless about predicting the so-called aam-admi's mind. It is clear from his narrative - that *he* was also expecting the mumbai attack to have repurcursions in the state elections. Right, this author is too judgemental, and confused between terrorism and communalism, and tries to pass on his confusions to his readers. And yes, there are too many of them. You can really count the commentators, who are more factual and less judgemental.
By Moorthy RS 12/10/2008 11:22:00 AM
Yes there is much more bigger concept.People of India who are around thousands of years old,have seen many types of people and know what a person would speak the next word by hearing his present word and hence know his intentions.So you cannot fool them.
By Deepak 12/10/2008 11:19:00 AM
Iagree with the author points abasically in delhi and madhyapradesh cong and bjp won their elections purely based on the performences of the chief ministers In general people want good governance which raj didnot produced and party candidate as cm for delhi was also inapprppriate in the current situation.
By radhiseshan 12/10/2008 11:01:00 AM
Once again you are missing the wood for the trees! The analysis is silly and judgemental, without any incisive thinking. Please understand that in Delhi Sheila Dixit has won because she is highly regarded and respected as a Hindu! As for Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje has lost because her royal superior stance, which may not have gone well with voters. We can understand that between now and LS elections people like you, traitors to Hinduism, will try and break the morale of any Hindu party. But understand that there is something bigger thn all of this.
By john dayal 12/10/2008 10:59:00 AM
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